Only the Strong Will Survive: New Report Predicts Wave of Cancellations in U.S. Solar and Wind Projects
- EnergyChannel Brasil
- Jul 30
- 2 min read
Analysis reveals that more than half of onshore wind and most solar projects may not survive without federal tax credits
Washington, July 2025 – A new warning has emerged in the U.S. renewable energy sector. According to a report by Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a large share of solar and wind projects currently in the development queue are at serious risk of being canceled. The main reason? The gradual rollback of federal tax credits that have long underpinned the economic feasibility of many clean energy initiatives.
The study evaluates the impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), a recent legislative shift that restructured the incentive framework for renewables. According to the data, only 30% of solar capacity and 57% of onshore wind capacity in the U.S. development pipeline would remain financially viable without tax support. The rest could be in jeopardy.
What defines a “resilient” project?
EIR defines project resilience based on pre-tax Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) being lower than future energy market prices and Renewable Energy Credit (REC) values. In other words, resilient projects are those that can survive without government subsidies.
The harsh truth: even among the top three renewable portfolios in the country, less than 30% of queued capacity is considered resilient.
A fragmented national landscape
The viability of renewable projects varies greatly by state. California and Arizona lead in solar resilience, with nearly all projects meeting the criteria. Meanwhile, Texas (6%), Illinois (40%), and Indiana (41%) lag far behind.
For onshore wind, Montana and Oklahoma show strong resilience across most projects, while Iowa, Illinois, and Texas face weaker outlooks, with a significant share of their wind pipelines exposed to economic risk.
New centers of clean energy development
Analysts expect development to shift toward states with renewable portfolio standards and stronger policy support, such as Arizona and Ohio, where REC prices and long-term PPAs can still sustain project economics.
“We’re seeing a market reshaping. True viability has become the new gold standard,” says Corianna Mah, EIR analyst. “Developers will now need to be more strategic and selective in where and how they invest.”
A new reality for the U.S. energy transition
This report challenges much of the optimism around America’s clean energy transition. Despite technical advancements and market growth, many projects remain heavily reliant on subsidies. Moving forward, resilience without incentives will define which projects make it to the finish line.
EnergyChannel will continue to follow the evolution of renewable policy in the United States, offering deep analysis on how these shifts impact global energy strategies.
Only the Strong Will Survive: New Report Predicts Wave of Cancellations in U.S. Solar and Wind Projects
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